EG007.TXT

Problem: At present a complete system of models, adequately describing national economy, does not exist.

Solution: It is necessarry to develop a uniform system of models for the study of topics involving ecological, economic, political and social problems with the participation of scientists around the world.

"ON MODELING SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC PROCESSES"
Talgat K. Sirazetdinov (Kazan, Republic Tatarstan)

At present the fast-growing human population has accumulated power, which is equivalent to the restoration forces of the whole planet. The force of the human mind has become the dominant force on the planet Earth and has resulted in a revolution in industry which, due to inordinate interference with nature, has led to the present economic and ecological condition. The time has come for the mental and spiritual forces of humanity to work together, so as to limit the impact on nature, and the influence of mind power, which needs to be guided by spiritual values.. If such control and management are not to be supplied, the destructive effect of a human being on the environment can make the planet unliveable for all human beings. In this way, mankind's economic activity can become destructive to life itself.

The intensive industrial and agrarian development of natural resources over last fifty years has caused significant deterioration of ecological conditions both in the Russian Federation (RF) and the Tatarstan Republic(RT). All this occurs within a context of general decline of manufacture, growth of crime, enhancement of social unrest, decrease in birth-rate and increase in death-rate.

At present the management of economic and ecological processes is carried out somewhat spontaneously, with no attempt to foresee and analyse the consequences of the decisions and measures taken in attempts to manage the economy. The measures, accepted at present in the struggle with economic and ecological problems, have the character of a struggle with the consequences, rather than with the forces that brought them about. It is necessary to revise the development model of our civilisation.

Furthermore, it is an established fact that the conversion process in industry is occurring all over the world. All manufacturing and other industries and are being reduced and reoriented. Workers are made redundant and unemployment is widespread. It is necessary, whenever possible, to reduce unemployment, to find ways of utilising the skills of those who have been made redundant, to produce new products and to devise new ways of manufacturing, in order to provide stability in the functioning of the economic system as a whole. Thus, facing society as a whole, all over the world, is an enormous social-economic problem, which requires an immediate solution. These issues cannot be resolved without government participation, regulation and planning, which means serious interference in established norms.

For this reason, a need has arisen for a careful study of economics, along with the whole process of man's management of natural resources and its ecological consequences. For this purpose it is necessary to involve modern science, with the use all the statistical means for forecasting, in the creation of new economic structures, the accommodation of manufacturing, the development of an innovation policy and recommendations for decision-making by an administrative staff.

There are various types of economic-mathematical models. In the construction of such models, the balance approach, i.e. model of Leontiev's type is frequently used. However, production is an extremely complex process and requires taking into account separately the development of an industrial product and its functioning . The economic and production processes are essentially dynamic and their modelling cannot be limited only to balance models. Economics should be considered as a dynamic system that, on the one hand, produces the useful product, engages in distribution, exchange and consumption of the manufactured product, and on the other hand, produces harmful poisonous products, while creating criminal conditions and intense social problems in real life.

Since the seventies, the elaboration of dynamic economic-mathematical models of the manufacturing process as the main factor in the development of an industrial object and the distribution of its production, has been under way in the Branch Dynamics Research Laboratory and Management of Economic Objects of Kazan Aviation Institute. In these models, commodity flows are taken into account the, as they come from one enterprise to another, establishing a dynamic connection among the enterprises. Models included five hundred enterprises with a long list of names of manufactured products, whose interaction was taken into account. A recently developed approach is used for modelling the development and functioning of regional economy, and the processes of transition to the market relations. An aggregated model was constructed of the development and functioning of a region. The model constructed takes into account market and barter exchange of manufactured products, allocation and return of the credits, investment, influences on the level of taxes and a number of other factors. Parameters of the model for RT were determined, i.e. the model was adjusted to RT. The reports show remarkable results, inasmuch as they have completely confirmed a real situation.

In RT the economic system in force ( the system of crediting, taxation, market condition, price and other basic moment ) has caused the destruction of all the manufacture in the Republic, especially that involving engineering, and without the constant interference of administrative bodies, economy would long ago have ceased. For example, in 1992, the machine-building complex was to stop in two years; according to the condition of manufacture of RT at the beginning 1996, as accounts show, production was to practically come to a halt by December 1996. Why has this not happened? It has not happened and is not happening because of a number of the laws and rights are being systematically infringed on: delay of return of credits, non-payment of the taxes and salary, state grants, i.e. continuous infringements of the standard rules of a market economy.

The operation of efficiency models already constructed shows the need for developing a more complete system of models, which could take into account the interaction, first of all ecological and economic processes and then social, political and other essential factors describing the condition and level of development of human society.

Human society and, in particular, national economy represent a complex functioning and development system of various interconnected objects. These objects in turn have a complex internal structure, which has some stability and aspiration for self-preservation. The stability of the developing system is provided by the destruction of old structures of objects, and their inclusion in interaction with new objects, with extended opportunities. For a national economy to maintain its viability and steady development, it is necessary to be able to predict its behaviour, to investigate possible variants of the development and to choose steady form of development.

At present a complete system of models, adequately describing national economy, does not exist. Even for considering only one given region, the description is not by one, but by set of a hierarchical system of models. For some kinds of objects, such models are developed. For a number of important objects and processes, such as criminal, social, political processes, etc., these models are lacking. In many cases, the models are aggregated and somewhat rough.

It is necessary to begin the systematic development of a uniform system of models for the study of such complex areas as those involving ecological, economic, political, social and other problems with the participation of positively oriented scientists and experts of whole the world.

Resume: Talgat Sirazetdinov is the Head of the Dep. of Control and Marketing of Kazan State Technical University, D.Sc., professor, Merited Scientist of RT and RF, member of Tatarstan Academy of Sciences and American Math. Society. His researches devoted to the problens of Aerodynamics, Flight Dynamics. Optimization and Stability of Ditributed Parameter Systems, Synthesis of Multicriteria and Multiconditions Systems, Modelling of Economic Objects. His hobby is Oriental Philosophy and establishment connection between the Modern Science and Man's Spiritual World. (Kazan, Republic Tatarstan)